The ongoing shortage of DRAM memory chips has squeezed PC manufacturers and consumers, pushing prices higher and limiting availability. A shift in this pattern could come by 2028, driven by a significant increase in Chinese DRAM production capacity. Industry veteran Khe-Hyun Kyung, a senior advisor at Samsung and former head of its Device Solutions division, predicts a notable easing of the shortage starting in the second half of 2027 or early 2028.
- Chinese DRAM production could reach six million wafers per month by H2 2027
- Korea dominates nearly 70% of the global DRAM market today
- Price relief expected as Chinese supply frees up global DRAM availability
- Investment shifts toward AI chips may influence production decisions
China’s DRAM Output Could Shift Market Balance
The global DRAM market is currently controlled by just three major players: Samsung and SK Hynix in Korea, and Micron in the United States. This limited supply base contributes to price volatility and shortages. China’s potential to produce up to six million wafers monthly could introduce a new dynamic, increasing supply and easing pressure on prices.
For consumers and businesses, this means more accessible memory components that could lower costs for PCs, servers, and consumer electronics. However, the extent to which Chinese-made DRAM will be available internationally, especially in the US, remains uncertain due to geopolitical factors.
A Strategic Pivot for Korean Semiconductor Industry
Kyung emphasizes that Korea may need to pivot away from direct DRAM manufacturing competition toward developing fabless system semiconductors and focusing on sovereign AI capabilities. Competing with both the US and China in hardware and software simultaneously is challenging, especially as AI demands specialized chips beyond traditional memory.
This strategic shift could help Korean firms maintain relevance in the semiconductor ecosystem, even as Chinese DRAM production scales up.
Price Relief Could Arrive Sooner Than Expected
Earlier forecasts suggested the DRAM shortage might last until the 2030s. Kyung’s outlook for a supply boost by 2028 offers a more optimistic timeline. Greater production capacity in China would free up supply constrained by the current oligopoly, benefiting smaller companies and consumers who have faced inflated prices and limited options.
The trade-off is that investments in AI semiconductor capital could compete with DRAM production budgets, potentially affecting output growth if returns on AI investments slow down.
Considerations for Buyers and the Market
Consumers and PC builders should watch for price trends starting in late 2027, when increased Chinese supply could soften the market. However, availability may vary by region due to export controls and trade policies.
Consider it if you’re looking to build or upgrade systems and want to time purchases for better memory pricing. Skip it if you need immediate upgrades, as shortages and high prices may persist in the short term.
(Via)
